Overview

The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of five products designed to work together to provide combined analyses and maximum functionality -- optimum decision analysis in one package!

The DecisionTools Suite brings together five products: @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, BestFit, and RISKview. Installation is fast and easy, using a single integrated set of disks. These products have been designed to work together in an integrated environment, running from a common toolbar in Microsoft Excel.

With the DecisionTools Suite, you can perform advanced analyses you could not perform with any single product. Create a decision tree in PrecisionTree, then use @RISK to run a Risk Analysis on it. Take data stored in another workbook, use BestFit to find the distribution that fits that data, and use the distribution with @RISK.

The DecisionTools Suite includes the following products:

@RISK is the Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Excel. @RISK adds the power of Monte Carlo simulation to any spreadsheet model. Replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK functions which represent a range of possible values. Select one or more bottom-line cells as outputs, and start a simulation. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or even thousands of times, each time selecting random values from the @RISK functions you've entered. The result: a distribution of possible outcomes and the probability of getting those results. This not only tells you what could happen in a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen. Results can be displayed as graphs and in a full statistical report. Advanced features include Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis, overlay graphs, and multiple summary graphs.

PrecisionTree is the Decision Analysis add-in for Excel. Create influence diagrams and decision trees right in your existing spreadsheets! Use influence diagrams to see the relationships between components of a problem, then decision trees to model the sequence of events. Results include a full statistical report and risk profile graphs. Sensitivity Analysis tells you which factors in your decision are most important. Advanced features include linked trees, logic nodes, and reference nodes. PrecisionTree Pro adds a policy suggestion graph, multiple scenarios, and VBA macro support!

TopRank is the What-if Analysis add-in for Excel. Take any spreadsheet and TopRank automatically determines which cells affect results the most and ranks them in order of importance. Results can be displayed as Tornado graphs and in a full statistical report. Advanced features include a What-if Wizard, Multi-Way What-if Analysis, and support for data tables. TopRank Pro features unlimited Multi-Way What-if Analysis.

BestFit is the distribution fitting solution for Windows. BestFit takes data (up to 30,000 points or pairs) and finds the distribution function that best fits that data. BestFit accepts three types of data: sample, density, and cumulative. BestFit tests up to 26 distribution types using advanced optimization algorithms. Results are displayed graphically and through a statistical report which includes goodness-of-fit statistics. BestFit distributions can be used directly in @RISK.

RISKview is the distribution viewing companion program. It is a powerful tool for viewing, assessing, and creating probability distributions. Draw distribution functions with the Distribution Artist and place them in @RISK models as General distributions. RISKview Pro calculates the distribution that best fits your hand-drawn curve from 37 distribution types!

DecisionTools Suite Features

• Easy installation from one set of disks
• Designed to work together
• @RISK -- Risk Analysis
• PrecisionTree -- Decision Analysis
• Common Excel toolbar to access all programs
• BestFit -- Distribution Fitting
• RISKview -- Distribution Previewing
• TopRank -- What-if Analysis

DecisionTools Suite Example: The Restaurant Franchise Problem

The following example illustrates how you can use all of the components of the DecisionTools Suite on one project. To view the spreadsheet models used in this example, download them from the Palisade web site. Consider the venture of opening a new fast food franchise in your city. Do you build a restaurant with a drive-thru window, a playground, both, or neither? To begin, you need to determine the costs involved to see if you can afford the project. You also need to determine the best size of restaurant to build in order to maximize profits in the long run. Start by building a spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel. This model calculates how much it will cost to build a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground. Building materials and other costs are accounted for in the model.

Step 1: TopRank for What-If Analysis
First, run TopRank on your model to determine the critical inputs. There are over 30 variables in your model, but after running TopRank you see that only five have a major impact on the cost of the project: cement cost (Q1), equipment, cement cost (Q2), furniture, and labor. You decide to concentrate on these variables for your Risk Analysis. By using TopRank, you reduced the amount of distributions you need to define for your risk analysis by over 80%!

Step 2: BestFit for Data Fitting
To run a Risk Analysis with @RISK, you need to replace those five variables identified by TopRank with @RISK probability distribution functions. With historical data for these values available from previous restaurant construction projects, you feed these data sets into BestFit to get distribution functions for each data set. BestFit's confidence levels and critical values guarantee that you have accurately fitted distributions for your @RISK model.

Step 3: RISKview for Distribution Previewing
Now, replace the five values in your model with the functions BestFit returned. However, you have recently gotten information from your furniture outlet that prices have been dropping lately, and now you need to reflect this information in the distribution that you are using for furniture price. RISKview allows you to take a look at the distribution you are using and try different parameters or functions to find a distribution that more accurately fits the situation.

Step 4: @RISK for Risk Analysis
You are now ready to run a simulation with @RISK! @RISK results show that there is an 88% chance the project will stay within your budget, and an 11% chance it will actually cost less than your "best-case scenario". In terms of cost, you are ready to go ahead with the project.

Step 5: PrecisionTree Runs a Decision Analysis
Having determined that you can build a fast food restaurant within your budget, you need to decide whether to build a drive-thru window and/or a playground. You build a decision tree in PrecisionTree modeling the costs for obtaining a building permit for the various types of restaurants, as well as estimates for profit potential after five years. Your results indicate that building a medium-sized restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground is your optimal decision.

Step 6: @RISK & PrecisionTree for Advanced Analysis
As a final analysis, run a Risk Analysis on your decision tree using @RISK. You replace your profit and cost estimates with @RISK functions. Next, simulate your decision tree with @RISK. The results confirm that building a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground will maximize profits, with a 12% probability of making more money than you possibly thought you could!

Get The Best Answers With The DecisionTools Suite!
Each product in the DecisionTools Suite can provide answers to a particular aspect of a decision problem. However, for the most comprehensive analyses, use them together to provide a more accurate and detailed analysis than you could with any single DecisionTool. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can start tackling the big problems today!